I'm declaring victory,6 weeks ago I wrote the DOW would hit 10000 close enough

Fellow Friends and Traders,

Six weeks ago the DOW stood at 9000. I wrote at the rate of the last 1000 point rally we should hit 10,000 by Labor Day (tongue in cheek thought but a real expected target.). This week the DOW hit 9918 while the S&P reached 1075 close enough to our 1100 target. Wednesday afternoon after the FED release I declared victory in the Chat Room.  The victory was close enough for government work and I proceeded to clean-out most of my last naked puts, any calls left and over the next few days sold over 300,000 shares and warrants of my favorite long, BTIM, for the last 3 years. In hindsight, I wished I had sold the remaining shares as well. I will have more on BTIM later now that the stock has settled back big time. Remember I trade big around the edges of my core positions as all good traders should do.

It looks like that old Wall Street adage: Sell on Rosh Hashanah and buy on Yom Kippur (Monday) saved a few traders 2% this week. This has been one of the mildest sell offs of the year so far yet it feels different this time. Geopolitical risks may be out there. The USD may rally. Oil has broken below its 50 DMA. Gold, Copper etc. are all selling off.

Recently all news was good. The market just rocketed higher. Maybe the FED is thinking about taking some of the punch bowl away. If End of Quarter (EOQ) buyers do not emerge this week look for a bigger correction.  Except for my sizable BTIM long I'm completely out of this market. I'm patient.  The Game we play every day, every week is still here. I'm looking forward to returning back to work. Stay tuned!

I have on numerous occasions mentioned Biotime (BTIM.OB) to my students over the last few years as my favorite "Wild Ass" speculation if the Dems won the election.  Remember Huntsman was my second best idea which didn't turn out too badly. Early this year, BTIM was under $1.25 the warrants at $0.30. The market cap was under $30M. Obama won and the rest is history. Less than a month ago BTIM was trading down at $3.00 after trading near $4.00. The warrants that traded near $2.00 were a $1.00.

The company filed a registration exchange offer for a swap of $3.5M of debt for 2M shares. These shares purchased by insiders could not be sold for 2 years. Yet the stock and warrants sold off rather hard. I urged everyone who called or was in the Chat Room to buy as much as they could down there. I did. Something good may happen or not. Dr. West, the "Godfather of Stem Cells" Founder of Geron and CEO of BTIM, was scheduled to speak at a Stem Cell conference in Baltimore on Tuesday 9/22. Instead he became the keynote speaker at a World Wide Stem Cell Conference in Beijing, China on the 23rd.  All hell broke loose (see link below): volume over next 3 days increased 6-8 fold.  Friday morning he stock traded near $7.00 with the warrant near $5.00. That afternoon the warrants were cut in half down to $2.50, while the common trades near $4.50. Needless given my sizable position and not knowing what was going on I sold into that earlier strength.

http://www.emerginvest.com/ChinaBioToday/9/26/2009/The_Week_in_Review_Three_Life_Science_Companies_to_IPO_on_GEM.html

This China deal puts BTIM in the fore front of stem cells in the world. Think of BTIM as the seller of picks and shovels during a gold rush. They make money coming and going. The market cap is only $150M. GERON at its peak had a $6B Cap. Today I believe it's $500M. I'm now guessing this stock can be anywhere someone wants it in the next 2 years. This is my get out a jail, live in the lap a luxury trade.  BTIM plans to list the stock on NASD as soon as all requirements are met.

Smaller traders or investors should buy the warrants as they are exercisable at $2.00 through 10/31/10. Smaller down side with a $ for $ upside. Caveat, the warrants are not nearly as liquid as the common and trade with a much wider bid/ask spread. I'm always scaling in with a series of bids below the market. I never take offers.  Don't go crazy. In this sell-off stock should come in. I've started buying both under $2.75 and $4.75. I'm much bigger lower.

Now that BTIM officially out there as my best idea going forward you will see more and more coverage coming. Remember buy weakness.  Don't chase strength unless I suggest it. Be happy you didn't pay close to $5 or $7 Friday.