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The correction is more than half over. Looking to re enter soon. Stan Moore
Fellow Friends and Traders,
The Iranian timeline has clearly slipped from late September to later in the year. It is my feeling this supposed new start only gives the Iranians new legitimacy and new hope they can now have both their bomb and enhanced global standing. We must look to the Gadhafi-type solution. Only after the fall of Saddam Hussein did Gadhafi feel his survival chances were more assured without nuclear weapons. The mullahs will only concede if they see their future the same way.
Stafford, an intelligence service, feels the crises will come not from clear Iranian unwillingness to cooperate but from ambiguity over whether Iran has cooperated. Our State Department (H. Clinton) feels the world can live with a nuclear Iran. Israel can't. Right now Israel has clearly chosen not to interfere with the talks. So unless there is a surprise or outside event we are safe until sometime during the 1st or 2nd quarter next year.
The September jobs report clearly put the "V" recovery thesis into question. I firmly believe in the "W" myself. We have corrected about 5% from the high. I'm looking to get involved big into equities once again on the long side as the decline approaches 975 and down to 950. Any more of a decline means something else is going on and it's not good. I see the market clearly in need of a rest. Most equity mutual funds are experiencing cash redemptions while money continues to finds it way in bonds. However, I believe the market should be higher going into year end.
We will know a lot more as earning season starts this week. Convincing investors with good forward looking comments would go a long way to calming and reassuring the markets. Otherwise, stocks could get hammered like Research in Motion (RIMM) which reported worst than expected earning guidance. Comparisons should be much easier this quarter but investors want to see top line growth. The not-as-bad won't fly any more. Neither will beat lowered estimates.
I am working on a list of good ideas and how to play them. This should be going out soon to paid subscribers. Meanwhile, BTIM, just as I wrote in my last email, gave us the perfect entry falling from $6.94 early Friday to $4.06 Monday morning and back to its 20 DMA. It rallied to a $6.24 high before settling at $5.45 on Friday's close. I believe we can continue to buy BTIM under $5.00 down to $4.50 on any market weakness.
The next announcement should find BTIM listing on a major exchange in say 2-3 weeks making the stock eligible for margin. If everything I know were to come to fruition I truly believe BTIM can trade between $15 and $30 sometime during the next 1-2 years. Beyond that the stock could be the next moon shot. I am working with BTIM to get help on a simple report to help investors understand just what the company is all about. So keep your toes and fingers crossed.
By the way BTIM is every bit as good to trade on the edges every week as HUN was. You can buy the dips and sell the rips nearly every day. We should be bailed out with good news in the future on a regular basis. Our last really big weakness to buy should be the forcing of the warrants into common. This should come sometime after a new listing. Be patient! I will keep you all apprized in the Chat Room, Alert Emails and on the Intraday Charts.
By the way since I am trading BTIM every day around a core position I am now in the Chat Room all week. However after my morning comments, I will not comment on every wiggle as in the past. I will continue to emphasize weekly options, hedging and parlaying Thursday and Fridays. However, you should be able to pick up a few $s here and there as always.
It's great to be back from my vacation. Now let's go out there and ton money trading. As always keep those cards and letters coming. I read every one. Your thoughts are greatly appreciated.
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