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"The Trader's Coach"
16 years as a trading and life coach

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"Plans, Plans & More Plans"
 
By Robin Dayne

We can never talk too much about the trader's plans and defining them.  Many traders think that plans once completed at the beginning of the year are done for the year.  Wrong! 

Trader plans need to be reviewed and modified monthly and sometimes even sooner.  Markets change results change and ones market knowledge changes.

So keeping on top of things and modifying a trading plan and help to avoid the "should 'a, could 'a, would 'a" at the end of the year when the goal isn't reached. Strategies need fine tuning as market conditions change and as I have always said, writing the plan somehow creates a special magic of success. There is something about having it in writing that makes the magic work that is different from just having it in your head.

The more you take time to DIG into each part of the trade the more you will uncover the places you can refine it. One of the best ways to keep on top of tuning the plan and details of the trade is to compare your similar trades in your journaling. Notice how each trade is different looking for anomalies that may pop out

Journaling can also point you to the areas to focus on for fixing a trading problem. Lets say you  compared your trades from the morning and you found you had more winner from 10:00 – 10:30 am EST and the average length of the winners were 14 – 20 ticks and the average time in the trade was 3 mins.

Your new rules for your trading plan could change to increasing size only during that morning timeframe. You could close the trade if it ran longer than 3 mins if it wasn't moving and you also realized you were always with the trade on most of the winners. New rule, only trade the trend.

Get the picture dig it will work for you and you will start to see amazing changes and results.

Here are some other key parts of the trading plan that you could review on a regular basis:

• The trading set-up – these are the conditions that have to exist for the trade to work. Defining the indicators being used and tweaking them so they work better. Be sure to measure the consistency of the same set-up to determine the percentages they win and lose.  A good rule of thumb is to be 85% or higher on the win side or look to change it.

• Determine:
• Are you getting the results you want?
• Can you add an indicator?
• Change or add a timeframe?
• Times: within the day, or days of the week – successes
• Are there any particular times of day that win more than others?
• Are there times where your trades are more profitable?
• What is the average length of time you are in your winning trades?
• Do you win more on certain days of the week more than others?
• Entries/Trades – fine tuning
• Can you refine the entry by a few ticks  - they can add up
• Are you trading mostly with the trend or counter-trend trading?
• Which are you most profitable at?
• Which markets lead your trades most of the time?
• After the entry of the trade
• How do you monitor the trade?
• Do you have your profit targets and stops in place?
• Are there any things you can do to "tighten" up this part of the trade?
• Your exits
• What are the different ways you can run with the trade?
• How can you protect your cash and lock in profits?
• If you are up and the trade pulls back how much room do you give it?
• Does a training stop help?
• What specific indicators do you use?
• What is the priority sequence of each of your indicators?
• Or better yet rate the importance of the indicator within the trade.
• How does each indicator affect the trade?
• Noticing how each indicator is working with the trade in detail is so important
• Do all your timeframe show the same trend?
• Does one timeframe tell you its time to entry and another shorter timeframe tell you the price you want to enter

Keep in mind there is not one trading set-up that will work 100% of the time (or we would all be trading it) Know when your trade set-up has:

• Perfect conditions – everything works exactly as planned.
• When this happens the more details you track the better and the easier it will be to repeat
• OK Conditions – This where the trade works half-way and you manage to get some profits out of the trade but they are small. In this situation most likely something has happened to the market conditions and during the trade the mode has gone from offensive to defensive with the goal of locking in something or minimizing the  loss is so important.
• Bad Conditions – This is when all the indicators show up but the trade doesn't work. Here is when knowing the difference between what works and what doesn't helps the trader exit as soon as possible. KNOW what's off, based on how the perfect trade sets up. Knowing this you can avoid this trade when it shows up again. Saving some money.

Noticing and defining the market conditions of the Perfect – OK – and Bad trade can really save a trader from unnecessary emotional build-up. Create certainty, eliminate fear and best, increase profits. But the only way a trader can do this is by tracking and reviewing each trades results. 

I can't tell you how many traders call me for coaching that do NOT track their traders or have a plan. I guess it's obvious because they are in trouble and so they're calling me. The great traders I have come across all seem to have the common thread of "digging" and really knowing the markets they trade so they can load up when it's right and stay out when it's bad.

Your goal is to have a plan - track your trades and be a "diggers" too.

In the meantime Great Trading!

Disclaimer/Nondisclosure 

ALL the information in the Robin Dayne Newsletter is for educational purposes only and is the sole property of Robin Dayne Inc. (RDI) and may not be duplicated, recorded or reproduced in any way and includes: verbal, print, e-mail, or any media vehicle without the written permission of RDI.

The Great Recession of 2011-2012
February 25th, 2010

Are you ready for the Great Recession of 2011–2012? You should be, for it is getting under way even as you read this. Just as the 2009 "greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression" actually began back in 2007, so we are in the early days of the next cycle. Only this recession is going to be a doozy. And the aftershocks will be felt long after President Hillary Clinton leaves the White House in 2024.

The coming crisis should be no surprise, for we all have had plenty of advance warning. If it is a surprise, blame those chat-show economists who have become so politicized that they ignore the truths of their own science in order to acquire celebrity. Nor should we forget those politicians who deliberately suborn national interest for the security of zero-sum pork-barrel politicking. Combine it all with a news media largely made up of self-referential ignoramuses and it is small wonder that most of the world has been diverted as Dorothy was in Oz by the lightning bolts, explosions, and billowing smoke screen being generated by the men behind the curtain. The truth is our wizards dare not admit that the levers they pull are not really connected to the true crisis that confronts America or its place in the global market. Read More

A Blind Eye Led the Market UP in 2009
February 23rd, 2010

Yesterday's Decline in the U.S. Consumer Confidence index to 10 month lows underscores the severe problems that the U.S. economy and stock market is facing.  Additionally, the present situation index for consumers dropped to 19.4 from 25.2 in January, the worst since February 1983. An un-expectant decline in housing prices for December of 2009, is also an ominous sign of woe. The problems for the economy continue to mount. A recent U.S. Government spokesperson recently stated that over 50% of all commercial real estate by the end of 2010 will be subject to foreclosure. Read More

A couple months ago I started providing more of my intraday charts in hopes to educate traders on current market conditions so they feel like they are "in the zone" for trading. It's crucial to understand the intraday moves and volume levels if you want to be consistently profitable trader.  It doesn't matter whether you are day trading or swing trading, you must be following daily and intraday charts.

I have been getting a few subscribers asking me: "Why I jump around from time frame to time frame so much?"

It's a great question as some days I'm using the 60 minute charts, another day the 2 hour chart, and another the daily chart etc… well I hope to answer this question within this education report. Read More

Bernanke does his semi-annual report on the economy and interest rates to the House and Senate panels Feb 24-25. Bernanke will assure Congress over and over again there will be no tightening until there is real job growth in the economy. The stock markets should be relieved.

The other big geopolitical event out there, Greece, has been put-off by the EU until March 16th. However, we may glean something from two events scheduled for next week. First, we have a $7 Billion 10-year Greek government bond auction. If successful, the offering could help soothe bond markets across Europe which remain jittery weeks after the crisis over Greece's finances first flared. But, if the new bond issue falters, European Union leaders could be forced to decide whether an EU bailout of Greece is in order. Read More

This is a commentary on the SP 500 index and the broader NYSE index.  As I often mention here for Partners, we try to work in probabilities and then plan accordingly with our investing and trading.  I look at Elliott Waves, Fibonacci levels, oversold and overbought patterns, cycles, and other indicators to give me some clues.  Today, we look at an indicator called The Force Index.

The Force Index:  Developed by Dr Alexander Elder, the Force index combines price movements and volume to measure the strength of bulls and bears in the market. The raw index is rather erratic and better results are achieved by smoothing with a 2-day or 13-day exponential moving average (EMA).

The higher the positive reading on the Force index, the stronger is the bulls' power.

Deep negative values signal that the bears are very strong.

If Force index flattens out it indicates that either (a) volumes are falling or (b) large volumes have failed to significantly move prices. Both are likely to precede a reversal. Read More

"Patience is the
Companion of Wisdom"

St. Augustine